With the round robin stages of the Louis Vuitton Cup (LVC) now a thing of the past and the knockout rounds about to commence, now is a good time to reflect on what has transpired in the weeks and months since the first race, and what we can look forward to in the future.

There is no doubt that round robin one (RR1) and two (RR2) handed out some typical Auckland weather; typical in the sense that's its extremely variable and almost impossible to predict! There were numerous delays caused by either too much wind or too little and once proceedings finally got underway many of the races were punctuated by enormous wind shifts demanding the highest tactical awareness and acumen from the after-guard. The variety of conditions experienced was a good test for both boat and crew alike. Teams that optimized their design for one end of the wind spectrum were quickly found wanting in the boat speed department in the opposite set of conditions. The ability to excel in all conditions and have good all-round boat speed has been crucial up to now and will no doubt continue to do so as the event progresses.

Looking back now at the predictions I made before the start of the LVC and the final table of results from RR1 and RR2, I have to give myself a pat on the back for some fairly accurate forecasts.

As I predicted, Alinghi started out strongly and sailed consistently well, eventually taking a well-deserved place at the top of the leader board. Helmsman Russel Coutts and tactician Brad Butterworth reinforced that they know the intricacies of the Hauraki Gulf better than almost anyone. Their boat speed was consistently good in all conditions and proved that they are going to be really difficult to beat as we get into the business end of this regatta.

OneWorld Challenge (OWC) started out winning 8 races in a row before finally incurring their first loss. They faded a little towards the end but no one is reading too much into their slight demise. They're fast and are sailing well especially in the all-important pre-starts, where young Aussie helmsman James Spithill has been somewhat of a revelation. Many people reckon the crew-work on OneWorld has been the slickest so far. They're clearly strong in every department, and as it turned out, the one point penalty imposed by the America's Cup arbitration panel as a result of the design secrets scandal did not adversely affect their standings enough to really hurt the team.

I predicted Prada would either self-implode or be a real contender to be reckoned with. In RR1 and RR2 they were both. They started off terribly and if I recall correctly had a 1-4 win-loss record after 5 races. There was talk of crew disputes and half way through RR1 the syndicate head Patrizzio Bertelli fired their head designer and two-time Cup winner, Doug Peterson. Under the cloud of all this turmoil, many people were counting them out. However, they made a strong comeback and finished RR2 with an excellent 7-1 record.

The Swedish 'Victory Challenge' as well as GBR Challenge had a couple of good results but lacked the consistency to challenge for the top 4 positions on the leader board.

Of the 5 big budget teams, one of them had to miss out on a top 4 spot after the RR stages, and it turned out to be Dennis Conner's team, Stars & Stripes (S&S). They seemed to be lacking the extra gear needed to emerge on top in tight situations. They weren't stellar in the pre-starts and neither in the boat speed department.

It certainly was a sad goodbye to the Latin Rascals, Mascalzone Latino. After finishing 9th and last after the two RRs they were the first team to be eliminated. Their lack of Cup experience was telling in a couple of situations and they suffered same bad luck in some of their races, sometimes of their own doing. For example they managed to wrap their chute on the final gybe to the finish while leading Prada by 5-6 boat lengths. They had to drop the chute to get the twist out; meanwhile Prada sailed right over the top of them. It was a perfect case of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory; and what a sweet victory it would have been for them to put one over their big spending fellow countrymen. That said they made a lot of friends on syndicate row with their relaxed. I hope they return in 2006 for another shot at the most coveted prize in sailing.

Now for some reflections on Oracle BMW Racing's performance so far. We started out superbly winning our first 4 races, but followed those early successes with tough losses to OWC and Alinghi. These are strong teams, and although no one on our team wants or expects to lose, losses to them are at least understandable. However our team has very high expectations, and after unacceptable losses to GBR and Prada, syndicate head Larry Ellison decided that some self-reflection and soul-searching was in order. Mr. Ellison decided that drastic changes were needed to reverse our fortunes, so in a move nobody was predicting, he decided to bring back Chris Dickson into the after-guard. Dickson was originally named as skipper of our team at the outset of the campaign but earlier this year he was demoted and no longer held a prominent position on the boat. The surprise move to re-instate Dickson turned out to be a masterstroke, because we reversed the losses to OWC and Alinghi in RR2 and finished RR2 with a 7-1 record and second place on the cumulative leader board.

The format for the rest of the competition is difficult to explain but I'll try to summarize. The top 4 teams after the RR stages (Alinghi, OBR, OWC and Prada) go into the 'double chance group', while 5 through 8 (Victory, GBR, S&S and Le Defi) go into the 'single chance group'. The winner of the RR stage earned the right to pick which of the remaining teams in the 'double chance group' they wish to sail against in the quarterfinals. Similarly the 5th placed team can chose which of the remaining teams in the 'single chance group' they wish to sail in the quarterfinals. The losers of the quarterfinals from the 'single chance group' will be eliminated. The losers of the quarterfinals from the 'double chance group' will drop down into the 'single chance group' and face the winners of the 'single chance group' quarterfinals, in what's called the quarterfinal 'repercharge'. The winners of the quarterfinal match-up in the 'double chance group' go straight through to the LVC semi-finals.

Looking ahead to the quarterfinals, there are some interesting match-ups. As winner of the RR stage, Alinghi has chosen to race Prada, which means Oracle BMW will be facing OneWorld in an all American clash. As 5th place boat, the Swedes have chosen to race Le Defi, which leaves S&S to race against GBR.

I expect Alinghi to be too strong for Prada. I think Russel Coutts has Prada's number in the pre-start and that Alinghi have slightly better boat speed as well. Prada have made some drastic last minute changes to their boat, but I don't think this will be enough against Alinghi. The reward for winning the quarterfinal match-up in the 'double chance group' is enormous. By going straight through to the semi's, you avoid dropping down to the quarterfinals repercharge, where anything can happen. This allows you to conserve your equipment, put less miles on your race sails and give you a lot more time between the quarters and semis to test new ideas, do some in house racing, make some mode changes to your boat and possibly even rest and recuperate for a short while.

Our series with OneWorld is simply too close to call. We split the series 1-1 in the RR, and I would expect our best of 7 quarterfinals match to end up 4-3 or 4-2. I'm obviously hoping it'll be OBR that ends up with 4 in the win column! One way or the other I think we'll see some of the best racing of the competition in this series. Hold on to your seats, it's going to be a dogfight!

The other pick of the quarterfinal matches should be GBR versus S&S. They both had matching 7-9 records after the two RR's, and GBR have shown a lot of potential. However you can never count Dennis Conner out. A bit like the Australian cricket team, S&S have a knack of performing when it matters most (i.e. the elimination rounds). Although they have been under-achieving up to now, they are very experienced in Cup racing, and you count them out at your own peril.

In the final quarterfinal showdown I think the Swedes will be too good for the French. The French were slightly lucky to even make it this far, and although their boat is not as slow as their 2-14 record would suggest, I think the efficient Scandinavians will take it 4-0 or 4-1.

In the RR stages there were some very close races as well as many one sided affairs, which some people labeled as boring to watch. Sure some of the races turn into a bit of a snooze fest because of the differences in boat speed between the strong and the weak teams. However that was the point of the RR; to determine who are the best contenders and who still have work to do if they are to mount a series challenge. Now that we've reached the elimination stages and even more so as the regatta progresses into the semifinals and finals, I expect the racing and action to be a lot closer. During the 2000 LVC finals there were some truly memorable races between the AmaricaOne syndicate and Prada in a series that went down to the wire with Prada prevailing 5-4. There's no reason why this time should be any different.

Without any TV coverage of the racing broadcast in SA (that's what I've been told), the only way to experience the action is over the Internet. A company called Virtual Spectator (VS) is broadcasting the racing live over the Internet using real-time 3D computer graphic images. The graphics are truly realistic and VS is without doubt the best way to watch the event if you can't be there in person. It costs 25 US$ to download (I think there's a free demo of some old races which you can use to test whether you think its worth the cost). In my opinion it's worth every cent for those fanatics out there. I can recommend it highly.

Here's hoping I can continue to provide some insight to the Smoothsailing readers as the regatta proceeds over the next few months. If I can continue to do so that'll mean that OBR are still in the running.

Till the next update, happy sailing.

Cheers
Alon Finkelstein